PRC/ZWE/RFP/0001/16/03/2022: Impact Evaluation (Endline Study) UNDP ZIMBABWE RESILIENCE BUILDING FUND PROGRAM

The purpose of this evaluation is to assess the Endline status of key indicators and understand what works in resilience programming in Zimbabwe, how and why. Results will be used to compare with baseline status, to test the program theory of change and understand the relationship between variables at community, household, and individual level to inform future program design. As such this evaluation focusses on the following evaluation areas:

1. Carry out a robust final impact evaluation for the Zimbabwe resilience building fund & projects (End-line evaluations)
2. Test the program and projects Theory of Change (ToC) through quasi-experimental or experimental methods to determine their impact on resilience outcomes at community, household and individual level. Understand the impact of the ZRBF on the resilience of households and communities. This evaluation area should also focus on the core capacities on which resilience is built and should ride on design and results of the baseline and outcome monitoring surveys conducted during implementation.
3. Investigate the relationships between household outcomes, shock exposure, and resilience capacities in the ZRBF and selected projects.
4. An assessment of the use of evidence generated by the programme under Component 1, which is expected to be used to both improve resilience programming as well as inform policy making within Zimbabwe.
5. An assessment of the extent to which the Component 3 crisis modifier has been able to respond to humanitarian shocks and protect development gains.
6. Conducts a Value for Money Assessment (VFM) that considers the financial costs in order to examine whether the ZRBF has offered VFM in terms of the cost to deliver the programme.

The programme-level baseline survey was designed as the first step in a two‐part evaluation process (i.e. baseline & end- line) with the final evaluation at program end as the second step. Both steps should be conducted at approximately the same time of the year that is the lean season (January to April 2022). Data collection for project-level impact evaluations will be conducted at same time and geographical areas as baseline, building on the overall baseline if possible. The contractor expects to conduct the final evaluation (end line) as close as possible to the end of the program June 2022 for the projects, depending on prevailing conditions at that time.

UNDP Zimbabwe Resilience Building Fund is seeking the services of an independent contractor to carry out end line evaluation for the ZRBF Program. The contractor will work closely with the UNDP ZRBF Management Unit, EU, FCDO, SIDA, GoZ and/or Lead grantees for specific result areas to execute the survey.  The scope of this evaluation covers the period from November 2021 to June 2022.

ZRBF program targets 18 rural districts for the direct interventions via awarded grantees for improving the absorptive, adaptive and transformative capacities of at-risk communities. The baseline, quantitative survey covered 4,200 households in 210 wards (communities), across 14 selected districts in January and February 2018. The quantitative survey was designed as a panel survey meaning that the same households and communities will be revisited at the endline round of evaluation. The quantitative evaluation follows both treatment households who are exposed to the ZRBF programme and control households who have not been exposed, allowing for the implementation of a quasi-experimental methodology known as Coarsened Exact Matching, which will be used to rigorously attribute the impact of ZRBF interventions on resilience and the capacities that underpin this resilience.  This is expected to be complemented by a small qualitative research study that focusses on baseline perceptions of the functioning of the crisis modifier under Component 3, as well as the progress made with the delivery of Component 1&2.