Research partner for inter-regional study on just transition and labour migration

Background

Decent work is a cornerstone for effective policies to green economies for achieving sustainable development. This implies that efforts to reduce adverse environmental impact must lead to socially just outcomes with employment opportunities for all, thus calling for a just transition to environmentally sustainable economies for all. Just transition involves maximizing the social and economic opportunities of climate and environmental action, including an enabling environment for sustainable enterprises, while minimizing and carefully managing associated risks and challenges. It should be based on effective social dialogue, respect for fundamental principles and rights at work, and be in accordance with international labour standards.

The concept of just transition gained international attention as the Paris Agreement on climate change adopted in 2015 notes the imperatives of a just transition and the creation of decent jobs in national contexts and circumstances as essential aspects of responses to climate change. In the same year, ILO constituents adopted the Guidelines for a just transition towards environmentally sustainable economies and societies for all through consensus among representatives of governments, employers and workers. The Guidelines offer a unique policy framework and a practical tool to guide the transformation to low-carbon and climate-resilient economies taking into account the social and employment-related dimensions. The Guidelines are both a policy framework and a practical tool to help countries at all levels of development manage the transition to carbon-neutral economies and can also help them achieve their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) and the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals. The framework promotes mechanisms for social dialogue among governments, workers and employers' organizations throughout policy making processes at all levels.

During the 111th Session of the International Labour Conference held in June 2023, the Resolution concerning a just transition towards environmentally sustainable economies and societies for all was adopted. This resolution emphasizes the imperative of a just transition and outlines guiding principles for achieving it, highlighting the roles of governments, employers' and workers' organizations, and the ILO. The Resolution calls for the development of a strategy and action plan on just transition; communication of the conclusions to relevant international and regional organizations; and taking into account the conclusions when preparing future programme and budget proposals and mobilizing extra-budgetary resources.

Mindful of the rapid moves of the global economy towards a low-carbon future, it's crucial to ensure that this transition is not only environmentally sustainable, but also equitable and inclusive. Governments must prioritize positive economic and social outcomes, ensuring that the shift towards sustainability is Just. Reports indicate that countries in the Gulf and Asian economies are expected to create millions of new 'green jobs' in the coming years, making it imperative to address the shortage of green skills through well-designed labour mobility schemes and market policies to meet demand and achieve net-zero emissions target by 2050. Conversely, neglecting to provide adequate green skills training could result in job losses and social shocks, underscoring the importance of effective social protection policies and sustainable employment initiatives to facilitate a fair and smooth transition.

Climate change has been called the single greatest risk for the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals. There is increasing evidence of climate change becoming an additional driver of migration, both internal and across borders.  In the case of slow onset events, climate variables interact with other key drivers, including lack of decent work and employment opportunities, weak governance, and intercommunity violence, etc. The sectors that employ the majority of workers are also some of the most vulnerable to climate change. When livelihoods are compromised and if survival is at stake, people migrate in search for better opportunities. This is an increasing trend, particularly among young persons.

Labour migration can be used to boost resilience in communities through the generation of remittances, the transfer of knowledge and skills and the development of networks that can lead to entrepreneurship and new markets. If migrants crossing borders due to climate-related factors can do so through safe and regular channels and can access format employment opportunities, they are more likely to contribute positively to their home country’s development.  At the same time, migration may reduce population pressure on climate-stressed environments and could benefit destination countries by helping to fill labour shortages. Well-managed and rights-based labour mobility and adaptation policies can provide an opportunity to boost resilience and enhance development while reducing the risk of future displacement.

About the assignment

This inter-regional analysis focuses on the linkages between labour mobility, skills, and social protection in the context of a just transition to the green economy in the regions. Specifically, the research aims to analyze (i)  the employment and labour mobility effects of climate change, including job gains/ losses and specific green jobs potential; and (iii) the impact of policy responses (climate, economic, social) on relevant employment sectors in the destination ADD countries to identify sectors that will witness high-demand green jobs creation; (iii) example of policies and initiatives on skills development and social protection which facilitate a just transition across the two regions.  

The objective of the research study is to provide evidence-based policy advice to governments across the two regions on just transition planning, which encompasses economic, social and employment policy making. The geographic focus of the report is the 18 countries in the Gulf and Asia region; 11 countries of origin: Afghanistan, Bangladesh, China, India, Indonesia, Nepal, Pakistan, Philippines, Sri Lanka, Thailand, and Vietnam; and seven countries of destination: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Yemen.

The report must include;

• An analysis of the correlation between existing labour market policies and workers’ labour mobility among various economic sectors and occupations
• Identification of sectors that will witness high-demand green jobs in the two regions,
• pinpoint initiatives that Governments can unilaterally, bilaterally, or regionally develop and implement to promote its efforts to upskill and reskill its labour force to meet the demand
• outline necessary social protection policies to facilitate a just transition.

Tasks and deliverables

The company is expected to carry out to delivery 1 policy brief in line with the following outlines and structures

1. Introduction and key messages
   1. About the report and brief introduction to the topic
   2. Climate change and environmental stress on labour mobility within the ADD corridor
   3. The just transition rationale in the context of the regions
   4. Key messages: There should be a maximum of 5 key messages listed in the introduction. These serve to highlight the main messages that will emerge in the report to support constituents in advancing the just transition agenda in the context of climate change and labour migration.
2. Climate change and migration
   1. Climate change implications on jobs, livelihoods, labour mobility, and working conditions.
   2. Analysis of existing labour market policies and workers’ labour mobility among various economic sectors and occupations
3. Just transition policy scenarios 
   1. Climate change policy effects on jobs, livelihoods, labour mobility, and working conditions in the GCC-Asia region
   2. Identification of sectors that will witness high-demand green jobs in the two regions
   3. Skills needs in high-growth sectors
4. Qualitative study and thematic deep-dives
   1. This section pinpoint initiatives that Governments can unilaterally, bilaterally, or regionally develop and implement to promote its efforts to upskill and reskill its labour force to meet the demand and outline necessary social protection policies to facilitate a just transition.
      1. Skills development initiatives, policies and examples
      2. Social protection initiatives, policies and examples
      3. Just transition initiatives, policies and examples
5. Findings and policy recommendations

Discussion of findings of section 2, 3 and 4, and presentation of conceptual framework to access the linkages between climate change and climate policies on one hand, and job creation/loss, and working conditions on the other. The recommendations provided should cover

• Labour mobility policies and planning
• Skills development policies
• Social protection policies
• Just transition framework
• The role of the world of work. How can Governments, workers’ and employers’ organisations support a just transition in the context of climate change, climate action, and labour mobility
• Recommendations for further work and unilateral, bilateral, and regional initiatives on skilling, reskilling, and upskilling as well as social protection

1. Conclusions

2-page summary of key findings and recommendation

1. References and resources

Supervision

The company will be supervised by the Just Transition Specialist, ILO Regional Office for Arab States/DWT Beirut with the technical assistance and support of Senior Migration Specialist, ILO Regional Office for Arab States/DWT Beirut, migration specialists of ILO Regional Officer for Asia Pacific/DWT-Bangkok and Senior Specialist Environment and Decent work, ILO Regional Officer for Asia Pacific/DWT-Bangkok as well as other relevant technical people of the ILO. The company must expect several rounds of revisions and feedback from the team, which should be planned for in the development and finalisation of the report.

Timeline and contract duration

The contract is valid from upon signature, and until the completion and the assignment by not later than December 8, 2025. The company is expected to work closely with the supervisor and share drafts and progress updates throughout. The draft report will go through several rounds of feedback and iterations. The report must be developed in accordance with the ILO branding guidelines. The contractor is expected to deliver an annotated outline by September 1, 2025 for feedback and review. A first complete draft would be expected by October 1, to allow for feedback and input from the Office. There may be more rounds of revision needed, depending on the progress made by the service provider.

Budget and payment schedule

The service provider is expected to outline a detailed budget for the delivery of the outputs as a part of their proposal.

The service provider will be paid in two installments. The first installment is upon delivery of the first full draft. The final payment is upon delivery of the final report to the satisfaction of the supervisor.

Eligibility

No individual consultancies, only service contractors are eligible for this assignment. To be eligible for this service contract, the applicant must meet all the following criteria:

• Language: Excellent command of English language.
• Competencies and knowledge: Deep knowledge of climate and environmental change issues and proven track record of research and/or data analysis relation to labour, climate and environmental change is required. Experience from previous work related to just transition and/or climate related labour mobility will be an advantage.
• Residency: As the policy brief will be developed by desk/based research, the company has no geographical restriction.
• The ILO is welcoming firms only, and individual consultants will not be considered for this contract.

Application process

All applicants must submit a technical proposal, financial proposal, and CVs of main team members and other relevant material.

• The technical proposal must outline how the contractor will develop and deliver the report. The contractor is encouraged to display ideas, cases, examples relevant to the policy brief. The technical proposal must include a timeline for delivery, with key milestones and dates, including considerations for feedback. Likewise, the technical proposal should include an elaborate outline of the proposed methodology for the assignment, if any particular ILO documents, tools or guides will be applied, including suggested sources for the literature review.
• The financial proposal must outline all cost related to delivery of the policy brief.
• The CV, any references or samples from previous and similar work.

The applications will be evaluated according to the following criteria: quality of the technical proposal, the cost to value, and demonstrated expertise related to the topic.

Technical and financial proposals should be submitted on September 1, 2025 to lundm@ilo.org and toufaily@ilo.org and shall be valid for 90 days.