Modelling Actuary: Actuarial valuation, policy analysis and capacity building partnership with PERKESO, Malaysia

1. Background

The Employees' Social Security Act 1969 (Act 4) stipulates an actuarial review should be carried out at intervals of at least every five years or at such other times as the Minister of Human Resources may consider necessary. The ILO carried out the eleventh actuarial valuation as of 31 December 2019 and the next (twelfth) actuarial valuation will take place as of 31 December 2024.

The project is focused around three key outcomes. Firstly, the undertaking and delivery of the actuarial valuations for four schemes. Full actuarial valuation reports including key results and recommendations, and reference to compliance with ILO Convention 102 will be completed. Secondly, a range of policy and technical support to PERKESO on extension of coverage (of existing schemes and proposed new schemes), policy and financing reform and management issues will be provided. Finally, there will be a strong focus on capacity building including the delivery of the actuarial models for the different benefit schemes to allow PERKESO to carry out actuarial analysis on their own plus tailored training on actuarial, financing, risk management and extension of coverage issues.

These Terms of Reference refer to the work related to the preparation of the valuation of the Employment Insurance (UI) Scheme (Act 800) as of 31 December 2025. This will the second actuarial valuation of this scheme; the first valuation was carried out by another organisation.

To carry out this work, the Modelling Actuary will work closely with the Senior Actuary as well as with the Chief Technical Advisor (‘CTA’) and Head of the Regional Actuarial Services Unit in Bangkok and PERKESO actuarial staff. The work includes the following elements:

• Data collection, analysis and management
• Assumption setting including macroeconomic and demographic framework for the valuation
• Model calibration
• Production of demographic and financial projection and results under the Base scenario and reconciliation with the previous actuarial valuation
• Carrying out of sensitivity analysis and reform options

This document therefore sets out the Terms of Reference for the Modelling Actuary for this work.

2. Activities

The Expert will carry out the following activities summarised as Preparatory work for the actuarial valuation of the Employment Insurance Scheme (Act 800) and including:

1. Together with the Senior Actuary, manage and review the analysis of the previous actuarial valuation of the EI scheme, any other previously undertaken actuarial work, existing information on any recent reforms of the scheme and available demographic, economic, labour force and financial data and scheme specific data on insured persons, contributors, pensioners as well as past financial statements and other relevant information in collaboration with the CTA and PERKESO.
2. Draw up a formal data collection request for data as of 31 December 2025, submit for review to the Senior Actuary and coordinate with the CTA and the PERKESO actuarial valuation team before finalising. Liaise with PERKESO to ensure appropriate data is collected. Together with the Senior Actuary, assess the suitability of the data provided for the ILO actuarial model working with the PERKESO team. If necessary, the modelling expert will develop an additional data request. Compile and analyse the collected data with a view to use in other analysis and to support assumption setting.
3. Propose appropriate scheme-related demographic and economic assumptions in consultation with the Senior Actuary, CTA and the PERKESO actuarial valuation team by taking into account historical trends, factors impacting future development and where relevant, experience of other countries. Analyse experiences of major parameters and indicators, compared to expected outcomes of the last actuarial valuation, including a review of investment and financial operations of the social security schemes, an assessment of coverage and its evolution since the last valuation, the development of the labour force, salary experience and benefits paid out.  Together with the Senior Actuary, draw up an overview presentation to propose and later validate the assumptions and potential parametric modifications to value and design options to assess in the valuation. Coordinate with the Senior Actuary and the ILO CTA to sign off on the assumptions used after consultation with stakeholders
4. Propose and discuss the model structure with the Senior Actuary and calibrate the model working with the PERKESO team. Produce the demographic and cash flow projections on the Base Scenario and different scenarios envisaged and ensure coordination with the Senior Actuary for peer review and finalisation. Carry out the appropriate sensitivity analysis and scenario testing working closely with the Senior Actuary, the CTA and PERKESO.

3. Key expected outputs

Output 1 (by 1st March 2026)

• Submission of data request for the actuarial valuation of the Employment Insurance scheme (Act 800), analysis of data received, follow up data request (if required) and signing off on data received as being appropriate for the valuation in collaboration with the Senior Actuary, the CTA and PERKESO staff. Determine the assumptions to adopt, present recommendations and confirm final assumptions to be adopted.  (Activities 1-3 above)

Output 2 (by 1st June 2026)

• Calibration of the valuation model and carrying out of the demographic and cashflow projections (Activity 4 above).

4. Time frame for payment

Payment will be made on completion of the assignment to the satisfaction of the ILO and on submission of invoices. The external collaborator can combine several outputs for one payment but will have to combine travel allowances and related outputs including missions as follows.

• First payment: 40%  by 1st March 2026
• Final payment: 60%  by 1st June 2026

5. Qualification and experience required

The Ex-Coll is required to have the following qualifications and experience:

• Qualified Actuary[1];
• Extensive experience in modelling and actuarial valuation work
• Knowledge of social security provision in Asia and in Malaysia is a bonus
• Experience of calibrating, reviewing and using actuarial valuation models.
• Extensive experience of undertaking the data collection and analysis process.
• Strong knowledge of international social security guidelines on actuarial work including IAA and ILO/ISSA publications.
• Ability to adapt to different working environments and to propose alternative options and recommendations to suit a specific country context.
• Strong critical analysis and presentation skills and report writing experience.
• Excellent English skills.
• Good teamwork and communication skills.

6. Application process

Applicants must email the following information to Mr Simon Brimblecombe (brimblecombe@ilo.org) with cc Ms Sissadee Ratsameet (ratsameet@iloguest.org ) “Application: Modelling Actuary, PERKESO Actuarial Work, [Full Name]” by 20th  June 2025:

1. Curriculum Vitae and indication of how you meet the requirements set out in 5 above;
2. Fee per day; and
3. Fee in total (ie including the number of days of work).

The ILO will assess applicants’ ability, experience, and proposed fee for the selection. The ILO will contact a selected or shortlisted candidate only and will not provide any clarifications to those who are not selected.