Tobacco tax impact assessment in Nauru

Purpose of the APW

The purpose of this activity is to provide technical support to assess the impact of tobacco tax increases in Nauru.

Background

Noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are the leading cause of death in Nauru. According to WHO estimates, 79% of all deaths in Nauru are caused by NCDs such as ischemic heart disease, complications of hypertension (including cerebrovascular disease), diabetes, kidney disease, and lower respiratory infection. With significant contributions to mortality and morbidity, NCDs are also a threat to the country’s economy.

Tobacco use is a main modifiable risk factor to many NCDs including those listed above. Among the Pacific island countries, Nauru has one of the highest tobacco use prevalence; according to the 2015-16 STEPS survey, 46.4% of adults aged 18-69 years currently used tobacco, with little gap between male and female prevalence. Youth tobacco use prevalence is also high at 26.2% of students aged 13-15 years being current tobacco users.

Nauru is a Party to the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) and has demonstrated its commitment by implementing several tobacco control measures to date. One of these measures is increasing taxes on tobacco products which is considered as one of the most effective tobacco control measures to reduce tobacco use. Nauru, most recently, increased import duty rates on tobacco products by 20% in 2020.

As part of its support to Nauru Ministry of Health and Medical Services with tobacco control, WHO plans to conduct an assessment of recent tobacco tax increases, to demonstrate the impact to date, identify gaps and provide recommendations for further actions to strengthen tobacco taxation in Nauru.

Planned timelines (subject to confirmation)

• Start date: 20 June 2022
• End date: 19 August 2022

Requirements - Work to be performed

Objective 1: Assess the impact of tobacco tax increases in Nauru

Output 1.1: Relevant data for analysis (e.g., tax rates, price, sales, import, revenue, relevant elasticities) gathered and reviewed

• • In order to gather relevant data, the selected supplier will be expected to conduct remote interviews and request data from the relevant government agencies e.g., Ministry of Health and the Customs.The selected supplier will also be asked to visit Nauru to facilitate the data collection.

Output 1.2: Analysis of the impact of the recent tax increases such as direct, indirect and predicted impacts on revenue, import, sales and consumption

• • An initial 2-page report of the analysis will be required as a progress report.

Output 1.3: Final report and presentation slides summarizing the outcomes and recommendations

• • A final report detailing the assessment, methods, results, with discussion and recommendations will be required. A short PowerPoint presentation simplifying the assessment results, and study recommendations will also be submitted, accompanied by a detailed presentation to the relevant government agencies and WHO.

Requirements - planning

A selected supplier is expected to communicate closely with the Technical Officer who will provide overall direction and guidance for the outputs.

For the analysis of the impact, tobacco industry pricing strategies and the impact of tax increases on individual and the tobacco industry behaviours around tax avoidance and/or evasion may be explored, in addition to the financial and public health impact of the tax increase.  The assessment may be based on secondary analysis only – necessary data may be requested to relevant government agencies e.g., Ministry of Health and the Customs. Additional qualitative data collection and analysis is encouraged through (grey) literature review, key informant interviews and focus groups to explore the impact on individual behaviours around tobacco use.  In the analysis, use of the WHO Tobacco Tax Simulation Model (TaxSIM) or similar tool is encouraged.

Below is an indicative timeline of payment:

• 1 - Receipt of countersigned contract / 20 June 2022 / 0%
• 2 - Delivery and acceptance of progress report on outputs 1. and 1.2 / 15 July 2022 / 40%
• 3 - Delivery and acceptance of output 1.3 / 19 August 2022 / 60%

Inputs

Available data and a previous tax assessment study will be provided at the beginning of the contract period.

Activity Coordination & Reporting

• Technical Officer: Mina Kashiwabara, NCD, PNH
• Administrative Officer: Carolyn Toro, Secretary, PNH

Characteristics of the Provider

Qualifications and experience required:      

• • Master’s degree in a health or development economics, health financing, or related field
• • Minimum 3-5 years’ experience in tax policy formation, health economics or relevant field
• • Demonstrated experience in conducting economic impact studies and financial modelling
• • Experience in tax policy formulation, implementing new taxes or administering an excise regime
• • Experience advising on policy reform, from economic perspective, an advantage
• • Experience applying WHO TaxSiM software, an advantage
• • Experience working in Nauru or another Pacific island country, an advantage

Language requirements:

• • Fluent in written and spoken English

Note: The contracted individual or company must confirm that he or she has not and does not work with or for the tobacco industry.

Place of assignment

Remote, but the selected supplier will be asked to travel to Nauru for up to 10 working days for data collection and consultation. Cost of travel must be included in the financial proposal.

SUBMISSIONS

Qualified and interested specialists should submit the following documents to the Supply Officer through WP RO UNGM at < wproungm@who.int > by 6 June 2022

• • Technical proposal indicating approach/methodology, with the following accomplished forms:
  • o   Annex 2: Confidentiality Undertaking
  • o   Annex 3: Vendor Information Form / Company profile
• • Financial proposal

Please use Tender Notice No. WPRO/2022-05/PIC_NRU/175023 as subject to all submission. Only successful candidates will be contacted.

Last day of receiving queries for this tender is on 1 June 2022