Capacity building on applications of Simulation and Modelling Methods in Health Systems Research

BACKGROUND

While there has been impressive progress since independence, the Malaysian healthcare system is struggling to keep pace with the demand and pressure to deliver quality healthcare whilst handling challenges such as rising healthcare costs, low reimbursements and higher patient demands.

Malaysia is experiencing a rapid growth in ageing population, where the proportion of people aged 65 and over is expected to rise from an “almost aging society” in 2010 to an “aged society” in 2040. In addressing the emotional and physical needs of elderly, creating a sustainable age-friendly environment for healthy ageing is crucial. However, this is a complex system challenge, where it intertwines with many other support systems besides healthcare, such as social welfare, economic and workforce needs of a country.  Thus, studies using suitable modelling techniques to simulate the restructuring of healthcare provision that has close links with social and support services could potentially provide valuable insights for policymakers and decision makers for sustainable health system, as well as implications and impact on health care for elderly with emphasis on healthcare financing and systems for service delivery.

Traditional modelling techniques often neglect the broader implications and impacts to health systems that could critically affect the health system goals, and they often provide minimal usefulness in modelling complex health system scenarios. Thus, the applications of more recent simulation methods to address the dynamics and complexity of health systems is crucial. In general, there are several commonly methods used, namely system dynamics (SD), discrete event simulation (DES), agent-based modelling (ABM). For example, ABM is used to simulate micro level behaviours of individuals/agents with a set of pre-defined rules, assessing the interactions of individuals with the environments and capturing the pattern changed over time. These complex interaction patterns and possible impact between different agents such as providers, community and patients could then provide insights on the dynamic interaction of agents at the macro level.  Contrarily, SD is a macro level simulation, where it is used to evaluate decision variables that affect system performance for policymaking.  Lastly, the hybrid simulation is the integration of two or more from the three main modelling methods. It allows a more realistic simulation by addressing multiple aspects of behaviour at different system levels, harnessing the strengths of individual methods to increase the modelling efficiency and enhance the understanding of a complex system.

These skills are crucial and need to be acquired and embedded within research organisations such as the Institute for Health Systems Research (IHSR). However, the current workforce in IHSR and the National Institute of Health (NIH) needs capacity strengthening in computational modelling and simulation to support evidence needs and inform decision makers on the implications and impact of decision-making especially in the areas of healthcare financing and healthcare delivery systems.

PURPOSE/SPECIFIC OBJECTIVE OF THE ACTIVITY

To build the capacity of IHSR and NIH researchers on the fundamentals and key principles on computational modelling and simulation within the context of health systems research, especially with a focus on ageing population and elderly health.

DESCRIPTION OF ACTIVITIES TO BE CARRIED OUT

In total ten (10) working days of in-country support performed in the fourth quarter of the year 2020 including workshop and teaching on the modelling methods for health systems research.

METHOD(S) TO CARRY OUT THE ACTIVITY

The work with IHSR on the capacity building of modelling methods for health systems research requires with a focus on elderly health:

• • Preparatory work and technical support by emails, video conferencing, meetings and discussions
• • Conduct workshops and facilitate discussions for researchers, policymakers, academicians and other relevant stakeholders

Output/s

Output 1: Communication with NIH team to prepare training agenda and materials for the workshop. A series of virtual discussions with IHSR team is expected to be carried out before conducting the workshop to discuss and prepare the formal work in Malaysia, including workshop agenda, technical issues and logistic issues. The contractor is expected to work with the team on requirements for prioritising focus areas on elderly as well as identifying variables and requirements for simulation and modelling with the focus on elderly health.

Deliverable 1.1: A workshop agenda draft, including the description of the workshop content and relevant preparations needed prior to the workshop as well as data requirements for both introductory and advanced workshop on modelling and simulation for health systems research.

Output 2: Conduct and facilitate a 5-day introductory workshop on computational modelling and simulation in health systems research focusing on the impact of ageing, which comprises of lectures and hands on activities. The training sessions should include but not be limited to the following (subject to further refinement):

• • Fundamentals of systems modelling and simulation in health systems and services
• • Applications and policy implications of simulation models
• • Key principles and theories of model simulation applicable to SD, ABM and hybrid simulation.
• • Model design and assumptions
• • Model development strategy and data requirements
• • Outputs and data analysis
• • Case studies and real-world applications

Deliverable 2.1: Produce a workshop report with training materials for simulation in health systems research.

Output 3: Conduct and facilitate a 5-day advance workshop with local context applications on knowledge and skills in health systems modelling and simulation with a focus on elderly health, which comprises of lectures and hands on activities. The training sessions should include but not be limited to the following (subject to further refinement):

• • Applications of models in healthcare especially health systems research
• • Experiments: optimisation, validation, verification and calibration.
• • Analysis: of outputs and sensitivity analysis, including application evaluations.
• • To include case studies and real-world applications

Deliverable 3.1: Produce a workshop report with training materials for simulation in health systems research.

QUALIFICATIONS AND EXPERIENCE

EDUCATION

Essential: Postgraduate degree in computer science, economics, demography or related disciplines.

Desirable: Training in public health, health systems and service research would be advantageous.

EXPERIENCE

Essential: A minimum of 5 years of experience in modelling and simulation for health systems and service research.

Desirable: Experience in various computational modelling techniques such as SD, ABM and hybrid modelling would be advantageous.

SKILLS

Knowledge of using simulation software or other equivalent software that suitable for hybrid simulation, notably for hybrid simulation of SD and ABM.

LANGUAGES

Expert reading and writing in English

COMPETENCIES

The contractor should have experience in conducting and teaching modelling and simulation in healthcare especially in health systems research.
 

APPLICATIONS

Qualified and interested specialists should submit their CV {for individual contractors} or Company Profile {for institutional applications} and Expression of Interest {cover letter} to the Supply Officer through WP RO UNGM at < wproungm@who.int > by 31 July 2020

The cover letter should outline how their experience and qualifications make them a suitable candidate for this position and should include their proposed daily consultancy fee and availability.

Please use Tender Notice No. 110427 as subject to all submission.  Only successful candidates will be contacted.